I’ve had the impression that Overwatch League is getting more and more dull, one-sided games, and I decided to see if it can be quantified. It can.

owl-blowouts

I went through the current three stages, adding up the number of games with each possible score. Here’s the raw numbers.

Stage 3-2 2-1 3-1 3-0 4-0
1 17 7 29 2 15
2 13 4 25 2 26
3 7 2 19 3 16

I define “interesting games” as the ones in blue. Sometimes a blowout can be a really good game… but really, watching a far superior team wreck a worse one is not fun. A close score indicates a better match.

Note the progression: interesting games were 34% of all games in stage 1, 24% in stage 2, and 19% in stage 3 so far.

4-0 blowouts were 21% of games in stage 1, 37% in stage 2, and 34% in stage 3. Pretty striking trends in both categories!

Now, this may not be surprising. There were a lot of new teams in stage 1; players were getting used to their teams and learning about the opposition. But it seems it could have gone either way. There’s intense reason for mid-tier games to figure out what the top tier is doing. (Admittedly, the low-tier teams have it rough psychologically– a losing streak is hard to break.)

I expect there’s no solution to this, by the way. Maybe it’ll be the same next year, maybe not… it might take a year for other coaches to figure out how to break the Titans.

The overall standings are also interesting, as there’s such a sharp break into tiers.  The Titans, Excelsior, and Shock all have map W-L differentials of at least +45; the next best is the Gladiators with +17. Two teams (Mayhem and Justice) are doing absolutely awful; two more are under 1/3 W-L ratio. That leaves 14 teams in the muddy middle.

Edit: After writing this, I see the Titans just lost their first game of the year– to the LA Valiant, who are in 17th place overall. Now that’s an upset!

This stage, the Dallas Fuel has completely fallen apart: 1 W 5 L.  I feel bad for Jayne, my favorite streamer/commentator, who’s one of their coaches. Still, they made the playoffs last stage and are still at .500 overall.

It’s nice to see the Shanghai Dragons in 6th place this stage, with a winning overall record (10-8), since they lost every game last year.  But I’m pissed that they never play Geguri any more. Jeez, coaches, at least put her in during one map a game.