In reference to your recent post about Microtransactions, I was wondering what’s your take on the supposed Indie Game Soon-To-Bubble Bust. Are masses of people paying $1 for bundles of five games the reality of microtransactions in action, and, if so, is it heading for a fall?

—Tricky

I assume you’re referring to this article by developer Jeff Vogel.  Sample quotes:

Then even more developers, sincere and hard-working, looked at this frenzy and said, “I’m sick of working for [insert huge corporation name here]. I would prefer to do what I want and also get rich.” And they quit their jobs and joined the gold rush. Many of them. Many, many. Too many.

With so much product, supply and demand kicks in. Indies now do a huge chunk (if not most) of their business through sales and bundles, elbowing each other out of the way for the chance to sell their game for a dollar or less.

Now, I’m not in the business.  If Vogel’s message is “Don’t expect to make a fortune making indie games,” I’m sure he’s right, and anyway, didn’t we know that?  Most new businesses fail, and 90% of everything is crap.

Still, his article reminded me of the old Dizzy Dean quote: “Nobody goes there anymore— it’s too crowded.”

As a gamer, I think the current market is fantastic.  Before Steam, you may recall, you had to go to your local Best Buy or GameStop or whatever, and you had your choice of the current AAA titles.  Now you have publishers’ entire catalogs available, plus a slew of mid list titles, plus a pulsating scrum of tiny indie games.  And if you’re willing to wait for the next Steam sale, you can get just about any of them at a bargain.

Plus, the barrier to entry has plummeted.  You can make a mighty fine game with Unity, and an astonishing game with Unreal Engine 4.  Which means that even a one- or two-man team can produce something graphics snobs like me will buy.

It’s also good news for diversity— new kinds of games, a more varied palette of developers.

Again, 90% of indie games will be crap.  But there will be treasures, too, like Gunpoint and SpyParty.  Whether people listen to Vogel or not, whether or not there’s a bust, some people will continue to make small, neat games and some of them will even make money.

Most creative endeavors have this glut of creators— look at books or music.  A huge percentage of my friends and family have written a book, been in a band, drawn a comic, or made a game.  Being able to quit your day job is still going to be rare.

As for microtransations, I dunno. The Wikipedia article on the Humble Bundles is interesting reading; many of these sales have netted over $1 million. The maker of Dustforce reported that before their game was included in a bundle, Steam sales were about 10 a day; during the bundle it reached 50,000 a day, and afterward it remained at a higher level— 50 a day.  Seems like a win.

(My understanding is that the mobile game market is pretty much ruined for small players; I’m only talking about PC games here.  I think Steam has thrown its enormous weight behind the idea of making it easy to make, mod, and buy games, and that inhibits predatory behavior.)

The sheer number of games does raise a question: how do you know which ones are any good?  I rely a lot on a few game sites, but I’m sure I miss a lot of games.  Steam has reviews and recommendations, but neither has been very helpful. If you’re looking for an idea for a killer social media site, I’d suggest creating guides for navigating the Long Tail.

 

 

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