Sometimes you have to take a step back from the daily news and look at the long term trends.  This chart, by James Plunkett, does a great job of telling what’s happening in the world today:

global-income-1988-2008

What you’re seeing is what happened over the last 20 years to each percentile of income, worldwide. The two big stories:

  • The developing world has moved ahead massively.  The old picture of the well-off First World contrasted with the miserable Second and Third is out of date.  Literally billions of people are far, far better off than they were… a lot of this is in India and China, but also places like Brazil, Turkey, Malaysia, Gabon, Botswana, Chile.
  • The middle and working classes in the US and Europe have been stiffed.  The old picture of middle class countries where everyone prospers is– in these countries— no longer true.  New wealth is still being created, but it goes only to the top 10%.

To put it another way, you can’t assume any more that we’re inexorably moving toward a future like Star Trek— where prosperity just increases so steadily and broadly that traditional economics and inequality no longer matter– everyone joins the 1960s American middle class.  Instead, we’re heading more toward Snow Crash.

The second part of the story– how the US has moved from liberalism to plutocracy– I’ve addressed in more detail before.

Edit: Alert reader Alon Levy points out that the collapse of this part of the graph is also in part due to post-Soviet decline.

The first part we hear about much less.  A good place to start is this report from the Gates Foundation, which spotlights three huge stories:

  • Global poverty is on the way out.  Extreme poverty– the dollar-a-day type– is now limited to a billion people or so, and could be entirely eliminated.  Age-old diseases are being eradicated.  Even Africa is doing much better.
  • Foreign aid works, and it works better than ever.  Aid agencies concentrate on measurable gains, and they’re no longer held back by wasteful attempts to fight the Cold War with money.
  • When prosperity goes up, overpopulation ceases to be a problem.  We’ve already passed Peak Child; the earth’s population is stabilizing.  When people don’t have to have 12 children to have two survive, and when women are empowered, they no longer have 12 children.

The good news is going to engender some resistance, but I encourage you to read the linked report, which goes into far more detail.  Often people seem to prefer to think that the world is falling apart; we don’t have a place for massive good news.  (And I haven’t even gotten into the other huge secular trends to more democracy and less war.)

But global warming!  you cry.  And I’d reply: the big hangup on addressing global warming is not world development; it’s American political stupidity.  We’re the ones who deny the problem, refuse to do anything about it, and embrace sprawl, automobiles, and oil.  It’d be nice if China did more, given its scale, but we need to lead by example.  The developing world isn’t going to take the lead on this while we continue to spew out carbon.

And, of course, there’s that growing First World inequality.  A bunch of people look at the above chart and say, well of course, what we need is to stamp on the US middle class more, and give more money to the rich.  I wish I could say I don’t understand it, but I do: they’re still living in 1979; their worldview is still full of hippies, welfare, inflation, high taxes, and US domination.  Well, it’s time to update your calendars.

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